Cash flow forecast for the Christmas period: the six-week plan that stops January surprises
November is the month when cash flow surprises are born. Christmas trading, early pay dates, supplier bills landing before customers pay, and a January VAT and self-assessment season waiting on the other side. Businesses that forecast the next six weeks now will enter January calmly. Businesses that do not will spend January chasing money they already earned. A cash flow forecast is not a complicated model. For a small business, it is a week-by-week list of money expected in and money expected out, built from facts you already have: invoices raised, invoices due, payroll dates, rent, and regular supplier payments. The point is not precision to the pound. The point is seeing a shortfall three weeks before it happens, while you can still do something about it. Start with what is certain Build the forecast in three layers, starting with the certainties. First, money out that will not move: payroll, rent, loan payments, direct debits, and the December pay date if you bring it forward. ...